Chile and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 50th in the world, 8th in CONMEBOL. 28.3% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

50thFIFA ranking, of 211

8thof 10 in CONMEBOL

1459rating points

67 / 67attack / defence, out of 100

28.3%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Chile qualify in 28.3% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (71.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Chile get out of their group 42.1% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.5% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Chile qualify in 96.9% of campaigns instead of 28.3%.

Qualify28.3%
Round of 3211.9%
Round of 162.7%
Quarter-finals0.5%
Semi-finals<0.1%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Chile got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

South America plays a single league of ten, home and away. With Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay already in as centenary hosts, the top three of the other seven qualify and the fourth goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Chile play the full league.

There are 3 places for the 7 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Chile end up in that play-off in 31.7% of simulated campaigns.

CONMEBOL qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Chile have 1458.97 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 50th in the world and 8th of the 10 nations in South America. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 67 and their defence score 67, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Chile in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Peru	At home to the next side in the CONMEBOL ranking	1.59 – 1.17	45%	28%	27%
Argentina	At home to CONMEBOL's highest-ranked side	0.32 – 2.43	3%	14%	83%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.29 – 2.48	3%	13%	84%

Around them in CONMEBOL

Chile and the nations ranked around them in CONMEBOL.
In CONMEBOL	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
4	Uruguay Centenary host	20	1636	100%	0.3%
5	Ecuador	24	1587	83.0%	0.1%
6	Paraguay Centenary host	33	1552	100%	<0.1%
7	Venezuela	49	1466	31.4%	0%
8	Chile	50	1459	28.3%	0%
9	Peru	53	1451	17.6%	0%
10	Bolivia	78	1322	1.2%	0%

Chile at the World Cup

9World Cups played

Third placebest finish · 1962

2014last World Cup

They have played at 9 World Cups, the first in 1930 and the most recent in 2014. Their best finish is third place, in 1962. They have missed the last 3 World Cups.

Play it out: take Chile through South America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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