Norway and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 19th in the world, 11th in UEFA. 75.5% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

19thFIFA ranking, of 211

11thof 55 in UEFA

1638rating points

95 / 64attack / defence, out of 100

75.5%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Norway are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 75.5% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (34.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Norway get out of their group 84.1% of the time and win the tournament in 0.2% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Norway qualify in 83.8% of campaigns instead of 75.5%.

Qualify75.5%
Round of 3263.4%
Round of 1628.8%
Quarter-finals11.1%
Semi-finals3.6%
Final1.0%
Champions0.2%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Norway got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Norway come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Norway have 1637.89 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 19th in the world and 11th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 95 and their defence score 64, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Norway in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Denmark	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.61 – 1.31	43%	27%	30%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.70 – 2.31	9%	19%	72%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.69 – 2.32	9%	19%	72%

Around them in UEFA

Norway and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
8	Germany	13	1718	84.2%	1.0%
9	Croatia	14	1715	81.9%	0.7%
10	Italy	15	1713	82.4%	0.7%
11	Norway	19	1638	75.5%	0.2%
12	Denmark	21	1620	74.5%	0.2%
13	Austria	22	1601	69.1%	<0.1%
14	Türkiye	31	1564	61.6%	<0.1%

Norway at the World Cup

4World Cups played

Quarter-finalsbest finish · 2026

2026last World Cup

They have played at 4 World Cups, the first in 1938 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 2026.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the quarter-finals, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches (goals 13–11). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the quarter-finals in 7.1% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Norway's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
16 June	Group stage	Iraq	4–1	54%
23 June	Group stage	Senegal	3–2	21%
26 June	Group stage	France	1–4	75%
30 June	Round of 32	Côte d'Ivoire	2–1	53%
5 July	Round of 16	Brazil	2–1	24%
11 July	Quarter-final	England	1–2 (aet)	82%

Play it out: take Norway through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator