Jamaica and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 69th in the world, 7th in CONCACAF. 41.6% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Jamaica qualify in 41.6% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (58.4% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Jamaica get out of their group 21.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.2% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Jamaica qualify in 76.3% of campaigns instead of 41.6%.
- Qualify41.6%
- Round of 329.0%
- Round of 161.5%
- Quarter-finals0.2%
- Semi-finals<0.1%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Jamaica come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Jamaica end up in that play-off in 17.5% of simulated campaigns.
CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Jamaica have 1361.97 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 69th in the world and 7th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 57 and their defence score 73, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Curaçao | At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking | 1.63 – 1.11 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
 Mexico | At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side | 0.63 – 2.16 | 9% | 20% | 71% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.27 – 2.48 | 2% | 13% | 84% |
Around them in CONCACAF
| In CONCACAF | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  Panama |
46 | 1477 | 77.4% | <0.1% |
| 5 |  Costa Rica |
54 | 1445 | 75.7% | <0.1% |
| 6 |  Honduras |
67 | 1375 | 60.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Jamaica |
69 | 1362 | 41.6% | 0% |
| 8 | Curaçao |
80 | 1305 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 9 |  Haiti |
84 | 1281 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 10 |  Guatemala |
95 | 1245 | 14.6% | 0% |
Jamaica at the World Cup
They have played at one World Cup, in 1998. They have yet to get past the group stage. They have missed the last 7 World Cups.
Play it out: take Jamaica through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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