Mali and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 47th in the world, 9th in CAF. 64.2% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

47thFIFA ranking, of 211

9thof 54 in CAF

1474rating points

61 / 79attack / defence, out of 100

64.2%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Mali qualify in 64.2% of simulated campaigns: more likely to be there than not, with little margin for a bad window. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (35.8% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Mali get out of their group 49.0% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 1.9% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Mali qualify in 74.4% of campaigns instead of 64.2%.

Qualify64.2%
Round of 3231.5%
Round of 167.9%
Quarter-finals1.9%
Semi-finals0.4%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Mali got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Mali come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Mali end up in that play-off in 5.9% of simulated campaigns.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Mali have 1474.14 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 47th in the world and 9th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 61 and their defence score 79, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Mali in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
South Africa	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.47 – 1.21	42%	28%	30%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.70 – 2.10	11%	21%	68%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.29 – 2.40	3%	14%	83%

Around them in CAF

Mali and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
6	Nigeria	30	1568	80.4%	<0.1%
7	Congo DR	40	1506	69.2%	<0.1%
8	Cameroon	42	1485	65.5%	0%
9	Mali	47	1474	64.2%	0%
10	South Africa	48	1469	39.0%	0%
11	Tunisia	61	1415	26.6%	0%
12	Burkina Faso	62	1408	26.5%	0%

Mali at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Mali through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator