Senegal and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 18th in the world, 2nd in CAF. 89.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

18thFIFA ranking, of 211

2ndof 54 in CAF

1649rating points

89 / 92attack / defence, out of 100

89.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Senegal are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 89.1% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (39.9% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Senegal get out of their group 86.2% of the time and win the tournament in 0.4% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Senegal qualify in 92.2% of campaigns instead of 89.1%.

Qualify89.1%
Round of 3276.8%
Round of 1636.9%
Quarter-finals15.3%
Semi-finals5.4%
Final1.6%
Champions0.4%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Senegal got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Senegal come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Senegal end up in that play-off in 6.4% of simulated campaigns.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Senegal have 1648.84 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 18th in the world and 2nd of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 89 and their defence score 92, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Senegal in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Egypt	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.71 – 1.03	52%	27%	22%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	1.10 – 1.68	24%	27%	49%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.65 – 2.19	9%	20%	71%

Around them in CAF

Senegal and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Morocco Host	7	1805	100%	3.5%
2	Senegal	18	1649	89.1%	0.4%
3	Egypt	25	1586	80.2%	<0.1%
4	Algeria	28	1575	82.0%	0.1%
5	Côte d'Ivoire	29	1569	80.7%	<0.1%
6	Nigeria	30	1568	80.4%	<0.1%
7	Congo DR	40	1506	69.2%	<0.1%

Senegal at the World Cup

4World Cups played

Quarter-finalsbest finish · 2002

2026last World Cup

They have played at 4 World Cups, the first in 2002 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 2002.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 32, with 1 win, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 4 matches (goals 10–9). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 32 in 85.2% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Senegal's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
16 June	Group stage	France	1–3	64%
23 June	Group stage	Norway	2–3	21%
26 June	Group stage	Iraq	5–0	69%
1 July	Round of 32	Belgium	2–3 (aet)	58%

Play it out: take Senegal through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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