Poland and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 37th in the world, 18th in UEFA. 28.7% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Poland qualify in 28.7% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (71.3% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Poland get out of their group 62.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 1.4% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Poland qualify in 67.3% of campaigns instead of 28.7%.
- Qualify28.7%
- Round of 3217.9%
- Round of 165.3%
- Quarter-finals1.4%
- Semi-finals0.3%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Poland come in at the group stage.
There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.
UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Poland have 1514.58 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 37th in the world and 18th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 80 and their defence score 66, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hungary | At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking | 1.56 – 1.24 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
 Spain | At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side | 0.34 – 2.43 | 3% | 14% | 82% |
 Argentina | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.33 – 2.43 | 3% | 14% | 82% |
Around them in UEFA
| In UEFA | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  Sweden |
34 | 1544 | 34.2% | <0.1% |
| 16 |  Russia |
35 | 1537 | 36.9% | <0.1% |
| 17 |  Ukraine |
36 | 1535 | 29.7% | <0.1% |
| 18 |  Poland |
37 | 1515 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 19 | Hungary |
38 | 1511 | 26.1% | <0.1% |
| 20 |  Wales |
39 | 1510 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 21 |  Greece |
41 | 1499 | 27.0% | <0.1% |
Poland at the World Cup
They have played at 9 World Cups, the first in 1938 and the most recent in 2022. Their best finish is third place, in 1974 and 1982. They did not qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
Play it out: take Poland through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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