Will Hong Kong make the 2030 World Cup? <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Hong Kong and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 153rd in the world, 30th in AFC. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

153rdFIFA ranking, of 211

30thof 46 in AFC

1035rating points

49 / 50attack / defence, out of 100

<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Hong Kong reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Qualify<0.1%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Hong Kong got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Hong Kong come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Hong Kong have 1035.23 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 153rd in the world and 30th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 49 and their defence score 50, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Hong Kong in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Myanmar	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.69 – 1.16	48%	27%	25%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	0.27 – 2.55	2%	13%	85%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.24 – 2.67	2%	11%	87%

Around them in AFC

Hong Kong and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
27	Turkmenistan	139	1079	<0.1%	0%
28	Yemen	144	1068	<0.1%	0%
29	Singapore	149	1059	<0.1%	0%
30	Hong Kong	153	1035	<0.1%	0%
31	Myanmar	159	1008	<0.1%	0%
32	Afghanistan	168	968	0%	0%
33	Maldives	173	936	0%	0%

Hong Kong at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Hong Kong through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator