Ukraine and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 36th in the world, 17th in UEFA. 29.7% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Ukraine qualify in 29.7% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (70.3% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Ukraine get out of their group 62.2% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Ukraine qualify in 69.0% of campaigns instead of 29.7%.
- Qualify29.7%
- Round of 3218.5%
- Round of 165.5%
- Quarter-finals1.5%
- Semi-finals0.3%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions<0.1%
The route to the finals
Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Ukraine come in at the group stage.
There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.
UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Ukraine have 1535.27 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 36th in the world and 17th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 62 and their defence score 71, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking | 1.57 – 1.24 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
 Spain | At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side | 0.33 – 2.38 | 3% | 15% | 82% |
 Argentina | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.33 – 2.39 | 3% | 15% | 82% |
Around them in UEFA
| In UEFA | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |  Türkiye |
31 | 1564 | 61.6% | <0.1% |
| 15 |  Sweden |
34 | 1544 | 34.2% | <0.1% |
| 16 |  Russia |
35 | 1537 | 36.9% | <0.1% |
| 17 |  Ukraine |
36 | 1535 | 29.7% | <0.1% |
| 18 | Poland |
37 | 1515 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 19 |  Hungary |
38 | 1511 | 26.1% | <0.1% |
| 20 |  Wales |
39 | 1510 | 24.0% | 0% |
Ukraine at the World Cup
They have played at one World Cup, in 2006. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 2006. They have missed the last 5 World Cups.
Play it out: take Ukraine through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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