Spain and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 1st in the world, 1st in UEFA. Already qualified.

Updated 22 October 2026

1stFIFA ranking, of 211

1stof 55 in UEFA

2012rating points

100 / 100attack / defence, out of 100

100%qualified as host

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Spain are one of the three host nations and qualify automatically. The single most likely outcome is winning the World Cup (28.7% of cycles).

At the finals, Spain get out of their group 99.7% of the time and win the tournament in 28.7% of all cycles.

Qualify100%
Round of 3299.7%
Round of 1685.8%
Quarter-finals73.1%
Semi-finals55.8%
Final40.3%
Champions28.7%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Spain got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

How they got here

As a host, Spain take one of UEFA's places without playing a qualifier. In the simulator they sit qualifying out entirely and are seeded into one of the first three groups at the draw. They play all three group matches in their own country, with the home advantage that brings.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Spain have 2011.57 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 1st in the world and 1st of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 100 and their defence score 100, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Spain in two fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
France	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.70 – 1.13	49%	27%	24%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	1.52 – 1.30	41%	28%	31%

Around them in UEFA

Spain and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Spain Host	1	2012	100%	28.7%
2	France	3	1959	96.2%	15.2%
3	England	4	1926	95.6%	11.5%
4	Portugal Host	5	1808	100%	4.4%
5	Belgium	8	1779	88.7%	2.4%
6	Netherlands	9	1779	88.3%	2.1%
7	Switzerland	12	1725	85.8%	1.2%

Spain at the World Cup

17World Cups played

Championsbest finish · 2010, 2026

2026last World Cup

They have played at 17 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 2026. They have won it twice: 2010 and 2026.

At the 2026 World Cup they won the title, with 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 8 matches (goals 14–1). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them winning it in 16.7% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Spain's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Cabo Verde	0–0	9%
21 June	Group stage	Saudi Arabia	4–0	87%
27 June	Group stage	Uruguay	1–0	66%
2 July	Round of 32	Austria	3–0	82%
6 July	Round of 16	Portugal	1–0	66%
10 July	Quarter-final	Belgium	2–1	69%
14 July	Semi-final	France	2–0	50%
19 July	Final	Argentina	1–0 (aet)	50%

Play it out: take Spain through the finals, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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