Montserrat and the 2030 World Cup: <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Ranked 172nd in the world, 25th in CONCACAF. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Montserrat reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Montserrat got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Montserrat come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Montserrat have 939.13 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 172nd in the world and 25th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 39 and their defence score 33, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Montserrat in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Barbados	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.58 – 1.26	43%	27%	29%
Mexico	At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side	0.24 – 2.64	2%	11%	87%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.78	2%	10%	88%

Around them in CONCACAF

Montserrat and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
22	St. Vincent / Grenadines	166	975	<0.1%	0%
23	Grenada	169	968	<0.1%	0%
24	Bermuda	171	951	<0.1%	0%
25	Montserrat	172	939	<0.1%	0%
26	Barbados	174	935	<0.1%	0%
27	Belize	180	900	<0.1%	0%
28	Aruba	185	890	<0.1%	0%

Montserrat at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.