Will Bermuda make the 2030 World Cup? <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Bermuda and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 171st in the world, 24th in CONCACAF. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

171stFIFA ranking, of 211

24thof 35 in CONCACAF

951rating points

41 / 16attack / defence, out of 100

<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Bermuda reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Qualify<0.1%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Bermuda got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Bermuda come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Bermuda have 951.28 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 171st in the world and 24th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 41 and their defence score 16, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Bermuda in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Montserrat	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.57 – 1.28	43%	28%	30%
Mexico	At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side	0.25 – 2.74	2%	11%	88%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.89	1%	9%	89%

Around them in CONCACAF

Bermuda and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
21	St. Lucia	165	976	<0.1%	0%
22	St. Vincent / Grenadines	166	975	<0.1%	0%
23	Grenada	169	968	<0.1%	0%
24	Bermuda	171	951	<0.1%	0%
25	Montserrat	172	939	<0.1%	0%
26	Barbados	174	935	<0.1%	0%
27	Belize	180	900	<0.1%	0%

Bermuda at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Bermuda through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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