Argentina and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 2nd in the world, 1st in CONMEBOL. Already qualified.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Argentina qualify automatically as hosts of one of the three centenary matches, and open their World Cup at home in Buenos Aires. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 16 (19.7% of cycles).
At the finals, Argentina get out of their group 99.5% of the time and win the tournament in 18.2% of all cycles.
- Qualify100%
- Round of 3299.5%
- Round of 1683.7%
- Quarter-finals64.0%
- Semi-finals45.8%
- Final30.5%
- Champions18.2%
How they got here
Argentina have a place already, but South America's league is played by all ten nations and the simulator keeps them in it: their results count for everyone else, while they themselves cannot take one of the three qualifying places. At the finals they play their first group match at home in Buenos Aires and the rest in the host countries, on neutral ground.
CONMEBOL qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Argentina have 1972.80 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 2nd in the world and 1st of the 10 nations in South America. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 100 and their defence score 97, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | At home to the next side in the CONMEBOL ranking | 2.00 – 0.88 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 1.30 – 1.52 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Around them in CONMEBOL
| In CONMEBOL | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Argentina Centenary host |
2 | 1973 | 100% | 18.2% |
| 2 | Brazil |
6 | 1807 | >99.9% | 3.4% |
| 3 |  Colombia |
11 | 1736 | 99.6% | 1.6% |
| 4 |  Uruguay Centenary host |
20 | 1636 | 100% | 0.3% |
| 5 |  Ecuador |
24 | 1587 | 83.0% | 0.1% |
| 6 |  Paraguay Centenary host |
33 | 1552 | 100% | <0.1% |
| 7 |  Venezuela |
49 | 1466 | 31.4% | 0% |
Argentina at the World Cup
They have played at 19 World Cups, the first in 1930 and the most recent in 2026. They have won it three times: 1978, 1986 and 2022.
At the 2026 World Cup they reached the final, with 7 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 8 matches (goals 19–8). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the final in 27.3% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.
| Date | Round | Opponent | Score | Chance beforehand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 June | Group stage |  Algeria | 3–0 | 75% |
| 22 June | Group stage |  Austria | 2–0 | 73% |
| 28 June | Group stage |  Jordan | 3–1 | 87% |
| 3 July | Round of 32 |  Cabo Verde | 3–2 (aet) | 94% |
| 7 July | Round of 16 |  Egypt | 3–2 | 84% |
| 12 July | Quarter-final |  Switzerland | 3–1 (aet) | 78% |
| 15 July | Semi-final |  England | 2–1 | 57% |
| 19 July | Final | Spain | 0–1 (aet) | 50% |
Play it out: take Argentina through the finals, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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