Luxembourg and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 101st in the world, 41st in UEFA. 0.8% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

101stFIFA ranking, of 211

41stof 55 in UEFA

1219rating points

34 / 42attack / defence, out of 100

0.8%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Luxembourg reach the World Cup in 0.8% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.2% of cycles).

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Luxembourg qualify in 3.2% of campaigns instead of 0.8%.

Qualify0.8%
Round of 32<0.1%
Round of 16<0.1%
Quarter-finals0%
Semi-finals0%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Luxembourg got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Luxembourg come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Luxembourg have 1218.80 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 101st in the world and 41st of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 34 and their defence score 42, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Luxembourg in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Armenia	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.57 – 1.15	45%	28%	27%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.24 – 2.70	2%	11%	87%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.24 – 2.70	2%	11%	87%

Around them in UEFA

Luxembourg and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
38	Montenegro	79	1315	5.3%	0%
39	Bulgaria	90	1263	1.4%	0%
40	Belarus	94	1250	1.4%	0%
41	Luxembourg	101	1219	0.8%	0%
42	Armenia	108	1183	0.6%	0%
43	Kazakhstan	117	1166	0.4%	0%
44	Estonia	122	1147	0.4%	0%

Luxembourg at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Luxembourg through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator