Netherlands and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 9th in the world, 6th in UEFA. 88.3% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

9thFIFA ranking, of 211

6thof 55 in UEFA

1779rating points

96 / 64attack / defence, out of 100

88.3%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Netherlands are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 88.3% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (29.9% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Netherlands get out of their group 96.0% of the time and win the tournament in 2.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Netherlands qualify in 92.3% of campaigns instead of 88.3%.

Qualify88.3%
Round of 3284.8%
Round of 1654.9%
Quarter-finals30.0%
Semi-finals14.3%
Final5.9%
Champions2.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Netherlands got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Netherlands come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Netherlands have 1778.61 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 9th in the world and 6th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 96 and their defence score 64, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Netherlands in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Switzerland	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.69 – 1.22	47%	27%	26%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.94 – 2.05	16%	23%	61%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.92 – 2.07	15%	23%	62%

Around them in UEFA

Netherlands and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
3	England	4	1926	95.6%	11.5%
4	Portugal Host	5	1808	100%	4.4%
5	Belgium	8	1779	88.7%	2.4%
6	Netherlands	9	1779	88.3%	2.1%
7	Switzerland	12	1725	85.8%	1.2%
8	Germany	13	1718	84.2%	1.0%
9	Croatia	14	1715	81.9%	0.7%

Netherlands at the World Cup

12World Cups played

Runners-upbest finish · 1974, 1978, 2010

2026last World Cup

They have played at 12 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is a lost final, in 1974, 1978 and 2010.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 32, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 4 matches (goals 11–5). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 32 in 94.7% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Netherlands's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
14 June	Group stage	Japan	2–2	23%
20 June	Group stage	Sweden	5–1	70%
25 June	Group stage	Tunisia	3–1	72%
30 June	Round of 32	Morocco	1–1 (2–3 pens)	51%

Play it out: take Netherlands through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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