Kazakhstan and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 117th in the world, 43rd in UEFA. 0.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

117thFIFA ranking, of 211

43rdof 55 in UEFA

1166rating points

39 / 41attack / defence, out of 100

0.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Kazakhstan reach the World Cup in 0.4% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.6% of cycles).

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Kazakhstan qualify in 2.5% of campaigns instead of 0.4%.

Qualify0.4%
Round of 32<0.1%
Round of 160%
Quarter-finals0%
Semi-finals0%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Kazakhstan got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Kazakhstan come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Kazakhstan have 1166.26 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 117th in the world and 43rd of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 39 and their defence score 41, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Kazakhstan in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Estonia	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.49 – 1.17	43%	28%	29%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.24 – 2.71	2%	11%	88%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.24 – 2.71	2%	11%	87%

Around them in UEFA

Kazakhstan and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
40	Belarus	94	1250	1.4%	0%
41	Luxembourg	101	1219	0.8%	0%
42	Armenia	108	1183	0.6%	0%
43	Kazakhstan	117	1166	0.4%	0%
44	Estonia	122	1147	0.4%	0%
45	Cyprus	125	1142	0.5%	0%
46	Faroe Islands	126	1140	0.5%	0%

Kazakhstan at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Kazakhstan through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator