Solomon Islands and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 152nd in the world, 2nd in OFC. 9.9% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Solomon Islands qualify in 9.9% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (90.1% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Solomon Islands get out of their group 3.3% of the time.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Solomon Islands qualify in 36.1% of campaigns instead of 9.9%.
- Qualify9.9%
- Round of 320.3%
- Round of 16<0.1%
- Quarter-finals0%
- Semi-finals0%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Oceania plays two groups, then semi-finals and a final. The winner qualifies and the beaten finalist goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Solomon Islands come in at the group stage.
There is one place for the 11 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Solomon Islands end up in that play-off in 29.6% of simulated campaigns.
OFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Solomon Islands have 1035.95 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 152nd in the world and 2nd of the 11 nations in Oceania. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 48 and their defence score 24, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fiji | At home to the next side in the OFC ranking | 1.59 – 1.28 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
 New Zealand | At home to OFC's highest-ranked side | 0.91 – 2.09 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.24 – 2.83 | 2% | 10% | 89% |
Around them in OFC
| In OFC | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand |
88 | 1277 | 67.6% | 0% |
| 2 |  Solomon Islands |
152 | 1036 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 3 | Fiji |
154 | 1033 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 4 |  New Caledonia |
156 | 1026 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 5 |  Tahiti |
157 | 1016 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 6 |  Vanuatu |
161 | 1006 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Papua New Guinea |
167 | 969 | 1.8% | 0% |
Solomon Islands at the World Cup
They have never played at a World Cup finals.
Play it out: take Solomon Islands through Oceania's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
Open the simulator