Papua New Guinea and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 167th in the world, 7th in OFC. 1.8% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Papua New Guinea qualify in 1.8% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (98.2% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Papua New Guinea get out of their group 1.1% of the time.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Papua New Guinea qualify in 6.7% of campaigns instead of 1.8%.
- Qualify1.8%
- Round of 32<0.1%
- Round of 160%
- Quarter-finals0%
- Semi-finals0%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Oceania plays two groups, then semi-finals and a final. The winner qualifies and the beaten finalist goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Papua New Guinea come in at the group stage.
There is one place for the 11 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Papua New Guinea end up in that play-off in 5.1% of simulated campaigns.
OFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Papua New Guinea have 969.14 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 167th in the world and 7th of the 11 nations in Oceania. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 36 and their defence score 22, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cook Islands | At home to the next side in the OFC ranking | 1.83 – 1.03 | 54% | 25% | 20% |
 New Zealand | At home to OFC's highest-ranked side | 0.76 – 2.24 | 11% | 20% | 69% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.23 – 2.85 | 2% | 10% | 89% |
Around them in OFC
| In OFC | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  New Caledonia |
156 | 1026 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 5 |  Tahiti |
157 | 1016 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 6 |  Vanuatu |
161 | 1006 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Papua New Guinea |
167 | 969 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 8 | Cook Islands |
187 | 880 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 9 |  Samoa |
189 | 876 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 10 |  American Samoa |
191 | 872 | 0.3% | 0% |
Papua New Guinea at the World Cup
They have never played at a World Cup finals.
Play it out: take Papua New Guinea through Oceania's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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