Haiti and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Haiti qualify in 22.4% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (77.6% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Haiti get out of their group 15.7% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Haiti qualify in 50.6% of campaigns instead of 22.4%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Haiti got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Haiti come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Haiti end up in that play-off in 14.5% of simulated campaigns.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Haiti have 1280.91 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 84th in the world and 9th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 69 and their defence score 59, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

Around them in CONCACAF

Haiti at the World Cup

They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 1974 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 3 matches (goals 2–8). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 10.0% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.