The 64-team World Cup 2030
FIFA is studying a 64-team World Cup for the centenary. The simulator already plays one: here is the format it uses, where the extra places would go and who would gain most.
Where the idea stands
The South American confederation proposed a one-off expansion to 64 teams for the 2030 centenary at a FIFA Council meeting in March 2025. In July 2026 FIFA asked an independent agency to study what it would mean for the competition, competitive balance, qualifying, player welfare and the calendar, with the analysis due in September 2026. The presidents of the European and Asian confederations have spoken against it. At the time of writing FIFA had announced no decision; any change needs the FIFA Council's approval. The 2030 guide covers the tournament as it stands.
The format the simulator plays
FIFA has published no 64-team format, so the simulator assumes the simplest one: 16 groups of four, the top two of each going straight into a round of 32, with no third-placed teams to rank. From there it is the same knock-out as with 48 teams. That makes 96 group matches and 32 knock-out matches, 128 in all, against 104 with 48 teams, and the champion still plays eight times.
Where the extra places go
There is no published allocation either. The simulator scales the 2026 shares in proportion: UEFA +4, AFC +3, CAF +3, CONMEBOL +3, CONCACAF +2 and OFC +1. In South America that would be 9 places for 10 nations. Qualifying itself keeps each confederation's format, so a cycle has 562 qualifiers rather than 639: the extra places shorten some routes rather than adding rounds. How each confederation qualifies.
| Confederation | 48 teams | 64 teams | Extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC · Asia | 8 | 11 | +3 |
| CAF · Africa | 9 | 12 | +3 |
| CONCACAF · North America | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| CONMEBOL · South America | 6 | 9 | +3 |
| OFC · Oceania | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| UEFA · Europe | 16 | 20 | +4 |
| Total | 48 | 64 | +16 |
Who gains most
With 48 teams, 39 nations qualify in more than half of the simulated campaigns; with 64 it is 54. The biggest winners are the nations just below the line today, above all in South America, where three extra places change everything.
| Nation | Confederation | 48 teams | 64 teams | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peru | CONMEBOL | 17.6% | 94.4% | +77 |
 Chile | CONMEBOL | 28.3% | 96.9% | +69 |
 Venezuela | CONMEBOL | 31.4% | 97.1% | +66 |
 Bolivia | CONMEBOL | 1.2% | 51.9% | +51 |
 Tunisia | CAF | 26.6% | 66.1% | +39 |
 Ukraine | UEFA | 29.7% | 69.0% | +39 |
 Poland | UEFA | 28.7% | 67.3% | +39 |
 Burkina Faso | CAF | 26.5% | 64.8% | +38 |
 Sweden | UEFA | 34.2% | 71.8% | +38 |
 Russia | UEFA | 36.9% | 73.8% | +37 |
 South Africa | CAF | 39.0% | 74.7% | +36 |
 Jamaica | CONCACAF | 41.6% | 76.3% | +35 |
First-time qualifiers
None of these nations has ever played at a World Cup, and each would qualify in at least a third of 64-team campaigns: Venezuela (97.1%), Mali (74.4%), Burkina Faso (64.8%), Oman (41.9%), Syria (40.5%) and Solomon Islands (36.1%).
Every nation's chances under both formats are on the predictions page and its own team page.
Start a 64-team World Cup: every qualifier, the draw and all 128 matches at the finals.
Play with 64 teams